Best WR Value Picks at ADP
Previously we talked about the best Zero RB targets, so let’s now take a look at the other end of the skill player spectrum and talk WRs. In this piece, I will be talking about WRs that I believe offer good value at their current ADP while providing insight into why I like these players at cost.
As always, thank you for reading The Fantasy Football Cookbook, if you like what you see, I'd be grateful if you could subscribe to the newsletter. From now until Week 1 - I will be posting at least one blog a week, all of which will be completely FREE.
Best WR Value Picks at ADP
Honorable Mentions: DeAndre Hopkins, Zay Jones, and Diontae Johnson, I covered why I like these players in my previous Positive Regression Candidates piece and don’t want to make you all read the same thoughts I laid out previously for the second time. If you haven’t seen those thoughts yet, please feel free to check out the article!
ADP data is from Underdog Fantasy as of May 27th, 2024
Jordan Addison (MIN):
ADP: 69.0
Here are the Top 5 WRs from the 2023 Draft Class in receiving yards from their first year in the league, along with the current ADP in 2024 Fantasy Drafts.
Puka Nacua - 1,486 yards - Current ADP: 9.4
*Rashee Rice - 938 yards - Current ADP: 82.6
Jordan Addison - 911 yards - Current ADP 69.0
Zay Flowers - 858 yards - Current ADP: 37.6
Jayden Reed - 793 yards - Current ADP: 58.1
The only player currently going later than Addison who finished as a top-five rookie WR in passing yards is Rashee Rice, who is facing a likely suspension after some offseason mishaps, if not for those, Rice would likely be going as a top 36 pick in fantasy drafts. I like Jayden Reed this year but his path to being locked into two WR sets is far from a lock with the other talent Green Bay has at WR and even he is almost going a full round earlier in fantasy drafts than Addison is, who is a lock to be in two WR sets.
My table pounding for Addison isn’t solely based on his ADP relative to his draft class counterparts though, over the past two seasons, Minnesota has ranked 3rd and 6th in passing attempts per game according to TeamRankings. While the team did lose Kirk Cousins this offseason, making projecting them not passing the ball at the same clip a more than reasonable expectation, it seems like drafters are acting as if the Vikings are going to rank in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. In the last three games in 2023, all played without Kirk Cousins, Minnesota still ranked 4th in passing attempts per game, so I think the market is overreacting to a potential decline in volume in the passing game.
While JJ McCarthy brings a lot of unknowns to the table, I think the market has more than priced that into Addison’s ADP, and in a year where WRs are going higher than ever before in fantasy drafts, Addison going this low doesn't make sense to me.
Rashod Bateman (BAL):
ADP: 173.9
As a former Bateman truther, I get that he has burnt us one too many times, but him going in the 170s is the outcome of that, so at least him potentially not being good at football is baked into the price.
The reports on Bateman from the Ravens have looked good so far to start the offseason, leaving room for us to remain optimistic, especially at his current cost. All signs point to the WR2 role being his to lose and betting on him to get and maintain that role at his current ADP offers good upside with relatively little to no risk. Partner that with the fact that the Ravens are projected to score the 7th most points per game this season (24.61) based on Vegas ITTs (Implied Team Total) and the 3rd most points per game in the fantasy playoffs (25.08) - there is plenty of reasons to be optimistic about taking Bateman in the final rounds of fantasy drafts.
A good thing to remember when taking WR2s that don’t project to be a top 3 option in an offense — is that you CANNOT score fantasy points if you’re not on the field, so despite Mark Andrews and Derrick Henry standing in Bateman’s path to a high volume workload, he’ll at least be on the field on a team with a high scoring offense.
Joshua Palmer (LAC):
ADP: 123.1
The Chargers cannot run the ball every single play despite what new coach Jim Harbaugh thinks about winning the game on the ground. None of the Chargers RB’s really project as great receiving backs so Palmer’s only real competition for targets is rookie Ladd McConkey, who plays a very different role at WR than Palmer, Quentin Johnson who had a historically bad season for a 1st round WR, newly added TE Will Dissly who has commanded over 30 targets in a season only once in his 6 years in the league, and maybe DJ Chark — who I don’t believe is a threat to Palmer’s role in the offense.
With a new coach and the departure of both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert could look at Palmer as a safety blanket in a sense as he’s the only WR on this roster that Herbert has real familairty/trust with. Saying Palmer could break out and be an elite WR this year is a stretch to put it lightly, but over the past two years Palmer has averaged 84 targets a season on offenses much more loaded with talent than this one and targets are earned not given.
While the Chargers are only projected to rank 21st in points per game this year, I think the market is treating it as if that’s their ceiling outcome rather than the baseline projection, don’t forget they still have a great QB in Justin Herbert and what projects to be a great OLine, don’t let the narratives you’ve seen online make you blind to the fact this team is still perfectly able to score real points in the NFL.
Jameson Williams (DET):
ADP: 88.8
It’s crazy to think that this is Williams third year in the league, and I think it feels that way because he has only been active in 18 games so far in his career due to an injury from college and a suspension. Let me say that again and add something to it, he was and still is a great WR prospect who has missed time due to an injury from college and a suspension to start last year — my point here is that it is far too early to be calling him a bust.
It’s no secret that Jameson looks to be the 4th option in this offense behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and the rushing game, but that is also why he isn’t going higher in drafts. While I do think that the Lions projecting to average the 2nd highest points per game is somewhat baked into this ADP, I do not think the fact Williams will finally get to play a full season worth of games in a high powered offense where he is a lock to be in 2WR sets is, and on top of that, it doesn’t feel like Jameson Williams actually being the great prospect he was considered to be on draft night is baked in at all here.
Winning in fantasy, and especially Best Ball, requires you to hit on players going later in drafts that you believed had upside, and to not think he has upside while being a high-end WR prospect who is a lock to be on the field in passing situations — on an offense projected to score the second most points in all of football… I can only attribute that thought process being due to a lack of understanding of where upside comes from in the first place.
Dontayvion Wicks (GB):
ADP: 130.7
The market really doesn’t know what to do with the Packers WR core right now and that is apparent as no other WR1/WR2 duo on a team that projects to be a Top 10 scoring offense is cheaper than the Packers’. I don’t bring this up to say that the market is wrong and I know the correct way to rank Green Bay’s WRs, I bring this up to say if the market doesn’t know what do with them, then we should embrace that.
I can bring up that Wicks flashed his playmaking ability last year and that he averaged 5.5 targets a game over the last 4 games of the regular season to try and convince you to like him as a value, which all could very well be good reason, but that is not my thesis for thinking he’s a good value WR.
The reason to like Wicks at this price is that Green Bay projects to be a Top 10 offense this year and he is currently the cheapest of the four Green Bay WRs who look to have fantasy value this year, with one of those WRs being Christian Watson, who despite saying he figured out what was causing his injuries, I need to see him not get hurt to believe he is no longer injury prone. So with drafting Wicks here our paths to it paying off is that his talent wins out and he gets volume despite there being three other receiving options and or Christian Watson cannot stay healthy and he becomes a lock in 3WR sets and maybe even sees action in 2WR sets. Both of those are well within the range of outcomes.
At the end of the day we want players who are on good offense that have a path to paying off their ADP and Wicks fits that mold perfectly. The value in Wicks here is that the downside is baked fully into his ADP while the upside — not so much.
Brandin Cooks (DAL):
ADP: 129.4
No team in 2023 passed more than the Dallas Cowboys and that is a trend that should continue as they have arguably the worst RB room in all of football. Here is a fun stat for you — out of all the teams projected to be Top 10 in scoring this year, only Baltimore has a cheaper WR2 (Rashod Bateman) ADP than the Cowboys, showing that Cooks very well could be the best WR2 value in all of fantasy football at these current prices.
Cooks is due to turn 31 years old during the season this year but he’s also not just an average WR as in six of his first seven season where he played at least 11 games, he averaged over 100 targets and 1000 receiving yards. He’s not the sexiest pick of all time as his ceiling outcome projects to be a middle of the pack WR2 in fantasy at best, but when you consider the fact he is currently being drafted as the WR60 on Underdog, drafting someone with his upside relative to cost starts actually looking sexy.
In a year where WRs are more expensive in fantasy drafts than ever, Cooks going this late is nothing short of a head scratcher.
Stay Tuned for More!
If you got this far, I really appreciate you taking the time to read my work and hopefully even subscribing to the newsletter. I will be writing another WR value piece later in the summer after ADP settles in even more, so if you liked this piece you’ll have another one just like it to look forward to!
There is plenty of Fantasy Football / Best Ball content to come on The Fantasy Football Cookbook that you won’t want to miss, I promise. So until next time everybody! Talk soon.