Best Zero RB/Late Round RBs to Target
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Cookbook
The NFL Draft and Free Agency have passed, which means we can pretend we have enough information on teams to start confidently drafting Best Ball rosters. Alright, that wasn’t a good joke but I am not deleting it, my goal for myself in these pieces, outside of providing you insight about grown men playing a game, is also to confidently write as myself rather than just sound like some douchey talking head behind a screen who writes about fantasy football, anyways…
First Look into 2024 Rosters
An important part of us being past the Draft and the busy part of the free agency period is we finally get a look at what teams’ depth charts are going to look like. For fantasy, we mostly care about offense, so us getting to take our first look into how strong a team’s skill positions (RB, WR, and TE) appear to be is the first big step of the summer drafting period.
Being able to look at the Lions’ WR room, and see that the Lions did not add anyone notable at WR this offseason, meaning Jameson Williams is primed to be Detroit’s WR2, or seeing that the Bears signed D’Andre Swift to create an even more crowded backfield that already contained Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson - making their RB room a hard one to read, is great to know, and it’s even better to know it early.
But today we are focusing on RBs, so before we jump into what RBs are in a spot where they have a path to success without a hard obstacle to overcome in their way, let’s briefly refresh on what exactly Zero RB is.
What is Zero RB?
This does not need 1000 words to describe in great detail, and I am not going to fill this with fluff to make it seems like there is. Zero RB is essentially a strategy used both in fantasy football and Best Ball drafts, where you wait until after the first 4-6 rounds before you take your first RB.
Why Would I Do That?
The ideology behind Zero RB and waiting that long to take an RB in a draft is that it is harder to select positions like WR in the later rounds of the draft that can be league winners, whereas at RB, you can take players that are only an injury away from getting 18+ touches a game like Zack Moss did last year when Jonathan Taylor didn’t play like Zach Charbonet did when Kenneth Walker got hurt like Kyren Williams did when Cam Akers wasn’t good at football (yes only being behind one mediocre player can sometimes be just as good as an injury away from starting) I think you get my point. RBs unlike WRs, can easily step into a role with a HEAVY increase in volume on a week’s notice, and for that reason, waiting on taking them until later in fantasy drafts to load up on positions like WR and TE is viewed as a viable strategy by some of the best minds in the game.
So now that you have the background information, let’s jump into some players who look to be viable Zero RB targets.
Best Zero RB Targets at Current ADP
Honorable Mentions:
Rico Dowdle (DAL)
Brian Robinson (WAS)
Gus Edwards (LAC)
Zack Moss (CIN)
Ty Chandler (MIN):
ADP: 151.7
Chandler shined last year after Alexander Mattison was injured and even when Mattison came back he continued to get eat into Mattison’s touches. While the Vikings did go out and add Aaron Jones this offseason, they also felt enough trust in Ty Chandler to let him remain as the teams bonafide RB2. With Aaron Jones turning 30 in December this year, Chandler should be getting touches even without a Jones injury or stretch of bad performances, giving him a floor to go along with the ceiling if either of those two outcomes come to fruition. Minnesota is also priced low right now due to a questionable QB room and I think some of that worry is unwarranted after they were still able to perform last year with Josh Dobbs and the ghost of Nick Mullens.
Blake Corum (LAR):
ADP: 130.1
Despite Kyren William’s stellar performance last year, Sean McVay still found the need to use a 3rd round pick on an RB this year with Corum. McVay has shown a tendency to like to give one RB a bulk of the touches, but it is hard to imagine the Rams organization blew a 3rd round pick on an RB, while their championship window begins to close, to not let him try and make an impact on the field. While the projected volume Corum will have if Kyren remains healthy all year is up in the air, Corum would be locked in as an RB1 if anything were to happen to Williams this year, partner that with the Rams already projecting to be a good offense, Corum’s ceiling makes him well worth a pick in the early 130s.
David Montgomery (DET):
ADP: 73.8
This is a little different than the previous two as Montgomery is getting picked within the top 80, but he is still a Zero RB target nonetheless. Even with Jahmyr Gibbs having another season to gain the coach's trust and adjust to the NFL, Montgomery still looks to be locked into having a meaningful role in this offense, especially around the goal line. Without a Gibbs injury, Montgomery still has the ability to pay off this ADP in his bag, and drafting him is one of two ways to get access to the Lions’ high-powered offense without having to spend a top 36 pick, the other being Jameson Willaims.
Zach Charbonet (SEA):
ADP: 136
Charbonet is in a very similar situation to Ty Chandler with the caveat being Kenneth Walker has more tread on the tires left at 23 years old than Aaron Jones has at 29 and that Charbonet profiles as a better RB than Chandler. I am a big fan of the addition of Mike Macdonald as head coach and think the market is too low on this coaching staff. Macdonald and his staff did not draft either of these two players, so there is a potential for Charbonet to be getting meaningful touches even with Walker still healthy, obviously, his best shot at a ceiling outcome is without Walker in the equation but the fact Charbonet has a clear path to touches without that happening makes him a perfect target for Zero RB.
Marshawn Lloyd (GB):
ADP: 146.6
It is VERY early in the summer and a lot can happen from now until the start of Week 1, but at the moment Lloyd looks like the clear RB2 on the Packers behind Josh Jacobs. His path to volume without a Jacobs injury is not off the table, but it’s not exactly a guarantee either. However, after a late-season breakout by Jordan Love last year, that almost saw GB take down SF in the playoffs, I want to be targeting this Green Bay offense. Pick 146 might be a somewhat steep price to pay for an RB who might not see more than 8-10 touches a game without an injury, but the upside of having the solidified RB2 on GB makes it a risk worth taking.
Najee Harris (PIT):
ADP: 86.6
Matt Canada is gone and say what you want about Arthur Smith, but he has worked with some great rushing offenses and it’s not possible for him to be worse than Canada, it’s just not. The Steelers also added not only Russell Wilson to their QB room but also Justin Fields, both of whom are going to be better at driving this Steelers offense down the field than Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph. With all of that being said, on top of an offensive line that should be improved, none of it feels baked into the price. Najee has run for over 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons with the Steelers so far and this year’s offense looks to be better than the three he had while racking up those numbers. Jaylen Warren will be stealing some volume from him but there is room for both of them to succeed in this offense, especially at this ADP.
Jaylen Warren (PIT):
ADP: 91.5
You can take almost everything I said about Najee Harris and apply it here, the only downside to Warren is that Najee will get the first chance at the early down work and presumably more of the carries around the goalline, while Warren projects to get more targets as a change of pace back but lower volume overall baring an injury or a stretch of mediocre games by Najee. Regardless, the Steelers look to be a team set on running the ball in 2024 and there will be enough touches to go around for Warren and Harris. I do prefer Harris out of the two but I want exposure to both of them.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR):
ADP: 172
New Carolina Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks despite being taken in the 2nd round, is coming off a torn ACL he suffered on November 11th. While all signs point towards him being ready to go Week 1, what I think is lost on other drafters is the fact that Carolina didn’t do anything else major to their RB room, leaving Hubbard at worst the team RB2. I think the market is a little too confident in thinking the 2nd round rookie is going to run away with a majority of the volume immediately, this has the making of a 1A/1B backfield to start the season, and while I would bet on Brooks being more talented than Hubbard, Hubbard will only be 25 to start this season and it’s within the range of outcomes that new head coach Dave Canales views him as a part in this offense. No one goes later than Hubbard who has a real shot at getting meaningful touches in a 1A/1B backfield rotation to start the season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC):
ADP: 213.7
We are getting into the late parts of the draft with these next two, which means that having the opportunity at any meaningful volume prior to an injury to whoever is ahead of them is grim at best, but that is also why they’re going this late, which is fine. Isiah Pacheco is locked and loaded as this teams RB1 as long as he remains healthy, but outside of Rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit who the Chiefs signed this offseason, no one looks to really be threatening CEH’s spot as the current RB2 on KC. He is going to need an injury to get into your fantasy lineups, but CEH is well worth the final pick in your Best Ball draft as long as his path to being the RB2 remains this clear.
Elijah Mitchell (SF):
ADP: 199.7
Elijah Mitchell will be next to worthless baring an injury to Christian McCaffrey, but CMC will be turning 28 this season and has gotten over 300 touches in each of the last two seasons. The 49ers really only added Isaac Guerendo as competition for Mitchell, and Mitchell is very familiar with the 49ers offense, which will give him the edge to be the team RB2 to open the season. Rooting for injuries is gross, but you need to position yourself in the chance an injury does occur, and getting any meaningful touches on a Kyle Shanahan offense is a recipe for fantasy success, something Mitchell looks guaranteed to see if CMC misses any time this year.
Outro
I appreciate you reading my first blog post on SubStack, like really really really appreciate it. If you like what you read I promise I will have more pieces coming out over the summer on how to attack your Best Ball and Fantasy Drafts. If you didn’t like it, that’s okay too.
Until next time, feel free to follow me on Twitter @BigLoaf_Fantasy to either ask questions, get some insights into fantasy, or just tell me my picks suck. See ya soon buckeroos!