Fantasy Football Week 9 Volume Report - One Key Stat for Each Team
I am once AGAIN doing things a little differently…
Changes to the Volume Report
If you’ve been a longer-term reader you know I’ve talked about changing the Volume Report in the last couple of weeks, and today I am officially going to make that change.
Early on in the season, looking at the weekly volume offers us more value because roles on teams aren’t yet set in stone and our ability to identify those early gives us an edge — and with each passing week, that edge continues to fade.
So instead of talking your head off about how you don’t need to roster a TE from the Colts or Broncos every week, now that we are this far along in the season, I will be doing ONE key stat for each team every week — essentially the most important takeaway for each team based on the volume.
While I wish I could continue doing it the previous way, it has started to become unfeasible. I love doing content but this piece normally takes me 10-14 hours from start to finish each Tuesday — so with the value of it going down each week, and the time it takes me to write the piece seemingly increasing each week as well, this felt like the correct middle ground. As a reminder, I do write this for free, and I am not a rich man by any means, so with the time I save tackling the piece this way the rest of the season — and the time you save not having to read me scrambling for words to say about certain situations on teams that have been locked in for the past month(s) — I am hopeful we both find this as an acceptable solution!
Now let’s jump into the volume!
What We Are Looking At
Here is a quick rundown of the volume stats we will be looking at today:
Snap Rate: The total number of plays a player was on the field compared to the total number of plays the player's team ran on offense.
Target Share: The number of targets a player had relative to how many times the QB threw the ball that game — Ex. Marvin Harrison got 5 targets and Kyler Murray threw 50 passes - so Marvin Harrison has a Target Share of 10%.
Target per Snap(TpS): The rate at which a player earned a target relative to their total number of snaps played — Ex. Isaiah Likely played 50 snaps and got 10 total targets, so his Targets per Snap is 0.20 (10 divided by 50)
Rushing Share: The number of rushing attempts an RB got compared to the total rushing attempts every RB on the team had — Ex. The Steelers ran 40 times with their RBs, and Jaylen Warren accounted for 4 of those carries - so Jaylen Warren has a 10% Rushing Share.
Carries per Snap(CpS): The rate at which a player received a carry relative to their total number of snaps played — Ex. Khalil Herbert played 50 snaps and got 10 total carries, so his Carries per Snap is 0.20 (10 divided by 50)
Fantasy Points per Snap(FPpS): The amount of fantasy points a player scores per snap on average in 0.5PPR leagues — Ex. Dontayvion Wicks played 50 snaps this week and scored 25.00 fantasy points, so his Fantasy Points per Snap is 0.50 (25 Fantasy Points divided by 50 Snaps Played)
Data Courtesy of FantasyPros and TeamRankings
RB Rushing Share Leaders Through Week 9
WR Target Share Leaders Through Week 9
TE Fantasy Points per Snap Leaders Through Week 9
Arizona Cardinals
Despite getting out-snapped by Emari Demercado for most of the year, Trey Benson has handled 19% of the RB carries compared to Demercado’s 8% — Benson remains the handcuff to own if anything were to happen to James Conner.
Atlanta Falcons
In a game where Drake London left early with a hip injury — Darnell Mooney played on 100% of the snaps and led the team in Target Share (38%) — Mooney is a high-end WR2 if London were to miss time and remains an every week starter even when London is healthy.
Baltimore Ravens
Diontae Johnson only played on 30% of the snaps in his Baltimore debut and didn’t command a single target. Obviously, I expect his snaps and targets to increase as the season goes on — but I wanted to bring this up as based on his first week, it is too early to tell what type of effect he will have on the other Ravens’ pass-catchers usage.
Buffalo Bills
Ray Davis only played on 14% of the snaps in Week 9 but did handle 24% of the RB carries — as it stands now he will not be startable as long as James Cook is healthy but he remains the handcuff to own in the Bills’ backfield.
Carolina Panthers
In the first game without Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette played on 83% of the snaps and earned a 25% Target Share, which is a season-high for him. Legette has also earned at least a 17% Target Share each of the past three weeks and with Diontae now out of the picture, it looks like XL will remain a viable flex starter for the rest of the season.
Chicago Bears
If I could just put “Shane Waldron is an idiot” here I would. The biggest takeaway this week is that D’Andre Swift continues to dominate the RB room, once again handling 80%+ (84%) of the RB carries in Week 9. Not that we didn’t know this already, but with Khalil Herbert now officially out of the picture — Roschon Johnson is the clear handcuff to own in this backfield.
Cincinnati Bengals
Speaking of Khalil Herbert, he is now a Cincinnati Bengal! Zack Moss is set to miss the remainder of the regular season with a neck injury, opening up Chase Brown to be the clear lead back. I expect Herbert to play the role Moss was post Chase takeover, so expect around a 35% snap rate while handling 40% of the RB carries for Herbert once he becomes acclimated to the offense. Herbert isn’t known for his role in the passing game so I expect Brown to pull away there more than he was with Moss active. Herbert should be owned in all 12+ team leagues while we figure out his role on the offense.
Cleveland Browns
Week 9 made it three straight weeks that Cedric Tillman earned at least a 22% Target Share, all signs point to him being the clear WR1 in Cleveland right now. He and Xavier Legette are in the same category for the rest of the season for me, viable flex-starters the remainder of the year due to volume — but I do have a slight preference for Tillman over Legette if we were comparing them against each other.
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Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is going to miss at least 4 games with a hamstring injury and the season now feels over for the Cowboys. In a week where Ezekiel Elliott missed due to disciplinary reasons, Rico Dowdle played on 71% of the snaps and handled 80% of the RB carries — while Dak missing is bad for the whole offense, it does look like Dowdle has cemented himself as the clear RB1 in this backfield after it being a muddied mess for the first half of the season.
Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton has now earned a 29%+ Target Share in each of the past two weeks while the rest of the WR rooms compete against each other for snaps — he and Javonte Williams remain the only two skill-position players on this team worth paying attention to.
Detroit Lions
In a game where the Lions played with a lead, it was once again David Montgomery handling the bulk of the workload as he played on 56% of the snaps and handled 61% of the RB carries compared to Jahmyr Gibbs who played on 39% of the snaps and handled 39% of the RB carries. It’s become apparent that in games where the Lions play with a commanding lead, Monty will be the back seeing the field the most and the inverse is true when they’re trailing as that will favor Gibbs. Both can be fired up as every-week starters but in games like this, one or both of them may fail to put up a Top 24 RB week.
Green Bay Packers
Romeo Doubs is the only GB WR who has played more than 80% of the snaps the last three weeks, and he’s eclipsed that 80% mark in each of those three weeks. Doubs may not have the explosive play upside that Jayden Reed has but he is the clear #1 WR in terms of seeing the field and should be treated as a better fantasy asset than he currently is, love the idea of buying low on Doubs right now to have a solid bench asset and plug and play starter when you need him.
Houston Texans
In the first week without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, it was till Xavier Hutchinson played the WR2/3 role while John Metchie and Robert Woods split the WR3 duties with a slight preference towards Metchie. This team desperately needs Nico back, but until then, and even when he does return, it would appear that Hutchinson is the WR in the line to fill in for the absence of Diggs — don’t mind holding Metchie for another week if you have him, but hopefully, you won’t be reliant on him or Hutchinson at any point this season.
Indianapolis Colts
This now marks four straight weeks where Josh Downs has either tied Michael Pittman in Target Share or out-targeted him completely, which he has done in three out of those four weeks. I feel confident in saying that as long as he remains healthy, Downs will be the WR1 in Indy the rest of the way, especially with Joe Flacco looking like he will be the starter for the remainder of the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Hopefully, Gabe Davis is able to suit up this week but in the absence of both him and Christian Kirk — it was Evan Engram playing the role of the #1 pass catcher as he led the team with a 33% Target Share in Week 9. When Davis is able to suit up again, this number will come down, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Engram led the team in Target Share during the last half of the season.
Kansas City Chiefs
In four of the Chiefs’ last five games, Travis Kelce has posted at least a 29% Target Share and has posted a 30%+ Target Share twice. The TD luck hasn’t been there for him but this usage is prime Kelce usage by the Chiefs, he remains my overall TE1 for the rest of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Since their bye in Week 5, Ladd McConkey has yet to earn less than a 19% Target Share and has earned a 20%+ Target Share in three of the last four games. McConkey’s usage is WR2 worthy and with the Chargers’ being more willing to pass the ball in neutral situations the last few weeks — McConkey is at worst a low-end WR2 the rest of the way and should be started on a week-to-week basis.
Los Angeles Rams
While the total volume has been minuscule, since Week 5, Blake Corum has played every snap that Kyren Williams has not and has handled every RB carry not given to Williams. He will not be fantasy viable without an injury but if anything were to happen to Williams — Corum would immediately be in the high-end RB2 conversation.
Las Vegas Raiders
In the two games he’s been active since Davante Adams got traded, Jakobi Meyers has earned a Target Share of 26% and 34%. The QB play will leave a lot of the table but anyone commanding the level of volume Meyers has been (and should continue to) will at worst be a flex-level play every week.
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Miami Dolphins
In the two games since Tua Tagovailoa has returned from IR, De’Von Achane has earned a 21% and a 29% Target Share — which would put him on pace to be the #1 RB in Target Share over the course of the season. Achane has moved into Top 5 RB territory as long as Tua remains healthy and hopefully, you were able to buy low on Achane while the Dolphins’ players were all at a discount in his absence.
Minnesota Vikings
Cam Akers played on 22% of the snaps in Week 9 and handled 22% of the RB carries while Ty Chandler didn’t even see the field. I’m not entirely convinced that Akers would be the clear RB1 in the backfield if Aaron Jones were to miss time but for the time being — Akers should be treated as the handcuff to own in this backfield and you can safely cut Chandler from any roster you have him on.
New England Patriots
This is now two weeks in a row that Rhamondre Stevenson has handled at least 80% of the RB carries — he had not handled 80%+ of the RB carries at any point before the last two weeks either, so this is a new trend. Antonio Gibson is probably droppable at this point but remains the handcuff to own in this backfield — Stevenson’s usage will be one to monitor next week as if it stays about the same, I think it’s fair of us to expect this as the new norm.
New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave left the game with a concussion that looks likely to make the WR end up on IR. In his absence, no one really stepped up as the WR1 and the offense just continued to flow through Alvin Kamara. Saints are a team we really don’t want to touch the rest of the season and if it ends up that Olave is out the rest of the season, Kamara is probably the only player on this team worth rostering. We’ve come a long way since Week 2!
New York Giants
Malik Nabers led all WRs across the NFL in Week 9 in Target Share, earning a 42% TS against the Commanders. It hasn’t looked like it did in the early parts of the season in terms of fantasy output, but Nabers remains an elite WR1 and someone I would be trying to trade for as at this point his perceived value is almost guaranteed to be less than his actual value — the big weeks will come again and they will be coming soon!
New York Jets
This marks two straight weeks that Garrett Wilson has posted a 30%+ Target Share and it seems like the correct read was the addition of Davante Adams was actually good for Wilson as it has opened up the field for him as defenses have to focus on Adams more than maybe they did with Allen Lazard. I expect the good weeks for Adams in fantasy to continue to come, but Wilson is the WR1 in this offense.
Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith posted a 26% Target Share in this game where AJ Brown was unable to see the field in the second half due to a knee injury. As of now, reports are pointing towards Brown potentially being available in Week 10, but if not, Smith gets boosted to the low-end WR1 range.
Pittsburgh Steelers
BYE WEEK
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba easily could’ve had 230+ yards in this game if not for penalties and even with them he still finished with 180 yards. It remains to be seen what his usage will look like with DK Metcalf back in the mix but genies cannot be put back into bottles and hopefully, this was the coming-out party for JSN.
San Francisco 49ers
BYE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cade Otton earned a 36% Target Share this week and it looks like he will continue to be heavily relied on in the absence of both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Until Evans is able to suit up again, Otton is at worst a Top 8 TE in fantasy as this usage he’s getting is truly elite.
Tennesee Titans
Calvin Ridley hasn’t posted less than a 24% Target Share since the Titans’ Week 5 bye and there is no reason based on who is around him that it shouldn’t continue. Ridley is a rich man’s version of Jakobi Meyers and will be an every-week WR2 at worst as long as he remains the focal point of the passing offense as he should.
Washington Commanders
Noah Brown is now clearly the WR2 in Washington if it wasn’t apparent already, he has consistently out-snapped everyone not named Terry McLaurin for basically the last month now and he even led the team in Target Share in Week 9 with a 32% TS — Brown should be owned in most 12+ team leagues at this point with how good Jayden Daniels has been.
That is all for this week, as always, thank you so much for reading and supporting the newsletter, the response since I started this has been overwhelmingly positive and I cannot say enough how much I appreciate it. Y’all are some dawgs!!!!
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